Province’s economy stacks up to rest of country

Where is the economy going? The answer varies depending on where you are, but right now you’re better off living in Canada than the U.S. and better in British Columbia than Ontario.

Cranbrook even stacks up fairly well where 16 new housing starts in July 2010 is running ahead of the 13 new houses started in July 2009, according to the latest statistics from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Province-wide, housing starts fell 15.6 per cent in July following a 3.8 per cent boost in June who is being blamed on a “chill” cast by the HST, which came into effect in July.

According to the Aug. 13 edition of “Infoline” put out by BC Stats, provincial exports climbed 2.6 per cent in June but sales of new motor vehicles slowed down around the province.

Exports to the U.S. climbed an impressive 7.6 per cent in June while shipments to countries other than the U.S. fell 1.9 per cent. Nation-wide exports fell even further at 2.5 per cent while commodities shipped to Japan climbed a healthy 8.9 per cent.

Pulp and lumber prices, two of the most important indicators of the health of the local economy, are currently showing mixed results. The benchmark price for pulp has been falling slightly in August but is still around the $1,000 a metric ton mark for Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) pulp which is still a strong price compared to previous years.

Lumber, however, isn’t faring so well and remains depressed as it has for the past two years. Two-by-fours are currently selling for $211 per thousand board feet according to Madison’s Reporter weekly review, a price at which most mills in the province lose money. Lumber exports to China are increasing but the American market is in the dumpster with foreclosures surging across the country with lenders repossessing 92,858 houses and properties in July, up nine per cent from June.

However, there is some good news out of Japan where housing starts increased slightly by 0.6 per cent in July to 66,668 units, according to the Japan Lumber Journal. Another bit of good news out of Japan is that the number of wooden homes being built is steadily climbing and is now 59.3 per cent of the market, nearly five per cent higher than the previous year.

Meanwhile new car sales across Canada were up in June, but still well below the levels prior to the recession. On a national basis, vehicle purchases were up 2.5 per cent in June with eight provinces, including B.C., reporting higher sales than June 2009.

Air passenger travel between Canada and the U.S. another strong economic indicator, declined for the third straight year in 2009 with B.C. travel down by 88,640 passengers, the biggest decline in the country.

Despite the slowdown in the economy, the cost of buying a new home in B.C. climbed 5.0 per cent in the second quarter of 2010 even as home sales continue to sag.

The biggest question now in most economists minds and others is will we slip into a “double-dip” recession later in the year or will the recovery that began early in the year continue to sputter into new life. In general, economic experts are saying the chances of a double-dip recession are much higher in the U.S than in Canada because of the weaker banking system and the far greater number of foreclosures.


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